Mets, Yankees set to play two in The Bronx (2024)

Coming off a frustrating spit of a four-game series in Miami, the Mets (51-48) are back in New York City for a two-game series against the Yankees (60-42) in The Bronx. It’s yet another edition of the Subway Series, which next year will feature six games instead of this year’s total of four.

Back in June, these teams played two games in Queens, both of which the Mets won as they scored nineteen runs across the pair of games to the Yankees’ nine. The Yankees are also coming off a split of a four-game series against a team from Florida, as they and the Rays each won twice in their series at Yankee Stadium coming out of the All-Star break.

Before the break, though, the Yankees were really struggling. Since a win over the Red Sox on June 14 that left them with a 50-22 record and 3.5 games up on the Orioles for first place in the American League East, the team has gone 10-20 over its last thirty games, including the recent series against the Rays. The Orioles haven’t been red hot, either, but they currently sit 1.5 games ahead of the Yankees for first place in the division.

There was a playful—but seemingly accurate—exchange between Luis Severino and his former Yankees teammates coming out of the break, as the pitcher joked that he wouldn’t have been afraid to face them since the team only has two good hitters right now. Since June 15, the first game of their bad stretch, Yankees hitters have a 109 wRC+ that ranks 10th in baseball, which isn’t bad. But as excellent as Aaron Judge (210 wRC+) and Juan Soto (195 wRC+) have been over that span, there are plenty of holes in this version of the Yankees’ lineup.

Giancarlo Stanton is still on the injured list, and to their credit, both Austin Wells (156 wRC+) and Trent Grisham (118 wRC+) have performed admirably at the plate, albeit in limited roles with far fewer plate appearances than the Yankees’ big duo.

The Mets got away with it the last time they saw the Yankees, but they should give much stronger consideration to pitching around or flat out intentionally walking at least Judge in any situation where his ability to hit a home run might have a significant impact on the game. If the Mets were to have a big lead late in either of these games, walking both Soto and Judge intentionally—back-to-back—could even be a perfectly reasonable thing to do.

For the sake of comparison, the Mets’ lineup has been firing on all cylinders over that same span of time. Nine Mets hitters have hit above league average by wRC+ since the middle of June, and seven of those nine have been considerably above the league average mark of 100.

Only a few active hitters on the roster have struggled over that span: Jeff McNeil, DJ Stewart, Tyrone Taylor, and Ben Gamel. And it helps that McNeil has come out of the break looking fantastic, as he’s hit .333/.308/1.083 with three home runs and a 263 wRC+ in the first four games of the second half. It’s the tiniest of samples, but it’s the best he’s looked at the plate all season.

As for the pitching side of things, the Yankees have had a much better staff overall over the course of the 2024 season, as they rank fourth in baseball with a 3.58 ERA. The Mets’ 4.21 ERA ranks 21st. But things have looked much worse for Yankees pitchers since the middle of June, as they have a 5.22 ERA that is the third-worst mark in baseball over that span. The Mets have held relatively steady, as their 4.32 ERA since then ranks 17th.

The Yankees’ bullpen has slipped a bit during that stretch, sitting a little below the middle of the pack in the sport after getting off to an exceptional start this year. It’s still been a much, much better bullpen than what the Mets have right now, but that is a low bar to clear. Even as the Mets have played incredibly well, their relievers have an awful 5.36 ERA since June 15.

There’s no reason that either of these teams can’t win one or both games, which should make for a competitive short series. And it’s always interesting to see what fly balls Yankee Stadium III will turn into home runs—many of which wouldn’t even come close to going over the fence if they were hit in Queens.

Tuesday, July 23: Jose Quintana vs. Luis Gil at 7:05 PM EDT on WPIX

Quintana (2024): 102.1 IP, 79 K, 34 BB, 17 HR, 4.13 ERA, 4.99 FIP, 106 ERA-

Following his worst start of the season against the Rays in early May, Quintana settled in to a relatively nice groove over the course of his next eleven starts. Over that span, he had a 3.13 ERA—with a 5.02 FIP that made the ERA look unsustainable—before his most recent start in the Mets’ final game before the All-Star break. Despite notching eight strikeouts against the Rockies that day, he gave up five earned runs in 5.2 innings of work. As depleted as the Yankees’ lineup is outside of the big two right now, Quintana pitching in this ballpark could make for a rough series opener.

Gil (2024): 102.1 IP, 118 K, 49 BB, 9 HR, 3.17 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 80 ERA-

After starting the season very well, Gil hit a really rough patch in late June and early July, and the Mets were one of three teams during that span to hit him hard. In his final two outings before the break, Gil looked much better against two good teams in the Red Sox and Orioles, allowing just two earned runs with 16 strikeouts and just one walk in 12.2 innings of work across those two starts.

Tuesday, July 23: Sean Manaea vs. Gerrit Cole at 7:05 PM EDT on ESPN

Manaea (2024): 101.1 IP, 97 K, 41 BB, 10 HR, 3.73 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 96 ERA-

Manaea has continued to be a perfectly decent mid-rotation starter for the Mets, which has really been the case since his first season in Queens started. He faced the Yankees in one of the two games at Citi Field in June and held them scoreless through five innings despite issuing five walks and only striking out three.

Cole (2024): 29.1 IP, 34 K, 10 BB, 6 HR, 4.60 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 117 ERA-

The 2023 American League Cy Young winner really hasn’t looked like himself since returning from the injured list in mid-June, but his last two starts have been pretty similar to Gil’s. In 12.0 innings total against the Orioles and Rays, Cole gave up two earned runs with 15 strikeouts and just two walks. Also like Gil, he faced the Mets in the previous Subway Series and struggled, as the good guys hit four home runs and scored six runs against him in just four innings of work at Citi Field.